Title | Optimal drought management using sampling stochastic dynamic programming with a hedging rule |
Publication Type | Journal Article |
Year of Publication | 2011 |
Authors | Eum H-I, Kim Y-O, Palmer RN |
Journal | Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management |
Volume | 137 |
Issue | 1 |
Start Page | 113 |
Pagination | 113-122 |
Date Published | 01/2011 |
ISSN | 0733-9496 |
Keywords | Droughts, Dynamic programming, Korea, Reservoir operation |
Abstract | This study develops procedures that calculate optimal water release curtailments during droughts using a future value function derived with a sampling stochastic dynamic programming model. Triggers that switch between a normal operating policy and an emergency operating policy (EOP) are based on initial reservoir storage values representing a 95% water supply reliability and an aggregate drought index that employs 6-month cumulative rainfall and 4-month cumulative streamflow. To verify the effectiveness of the method, a cross-validation scheme (using 2,100 combination sets) is employed to simulate the Geum River basin system in Korea. The simulation results demonstrate that the EOP approach: (1) reduces the maximum water shortage; (2) is most valuable when the initial storages of the drawdown period are low; and (3) is superior to other approaches when explicitly considering forecast uncertainty. |
DOI | 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000095 |