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A drought outlook study in Korea

TitleA drought outlook study in Korea
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2012
AuthorsKim Y-O, Lee J-K, Palmer RN
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Start Page1141
Date Published08/2012
Keywordsabcd model, Corée, drought outlook, global data assimilation and prediction system (GDAPS), indice d'approvisionnement des eaux de surface (SWSI), information météorologique industrielle mensuelle (MIMI), Korea, modèle abcd, monthly industrial meteorology information (MIMI), suivi de la sécheresse, surface water supply index (SWSI), systeme de prévision et d'assimilation globale de données (GDAPS)

Techniques are proposed for developing a monthly and weekly drought outlook and the drought outlook components are evaluated. A drought index, the surface water supply index (SWSI) was modified and used for the drought outlook. A water balance model (abcd) was successfully calibrated using a regional regression, including monthly and weekly factors, and was used to convert meteorology to hydrology. For the monthly drought outlook, an ensemble technique was applied, both with and without monthly industrial meteorology information (MIMI). For the weekly drought outlook, a deterministic forecasting technique was applied employing the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS). The methodologies were applied to the Geum River basin in Korea. While only the weekly outlook using the GDAPS has sufficient forecasting capability to suggest it might be useful, the accuracy of the monthly drought outlook is expected to improve as the climate forecast accuracy increases.