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Optimal drought management using sampling stochastic dynamic programming with a hedging rule

TitleOptimal drought management using sampling stochastic dynamic programming with a hedging rule
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2011
AuthorsEum H-I, Kim Y-O, Palmer RN
JournalJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume137
Issue1
Start Page113
Pagination113-122
Date Published01/2011
ISSN0733-9496
KeywordsDroughts, Dynamic programming, Korea, Reservoir operation
Abstract

This study develops procedures that calculate optimal water release curtailments during droughts using a future value function derived with a sampling stochastic dynamic programming model. Triggers that switch between a normal operating policy and an emergency operating policy (EOP) are based on initial reservoir storage values representing a 95% water supply reliability and an aggregate drought index that employs 6-month cumulative rainfall and 4-month cumulative streamflow. To verify the effectiveness of the method, a cross-validation scheme (using 2,100 combination sets) is employed to simulate the Geum River basin system in Korea. The simulation results demonstrate that the EOP approach: (1) reduces the maximum water shortage; (2) is most valuable when the initial storages of the drawdown period are low; and (3) is superior to other approaches when explicitly considering forecast uncertainty.

DOI10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000095